NFL PREDICTOR — WALK-FORWARD ACCURACY ====================================================================================== Trained on every week strictly before the eval season; scored the held-out season. MAE in stat units. RAW = raw p25–p75 band; CAL = the same band after conformal widening (target ~50%). Last-3 = the player's own last-3-game mean — the bar the model has to beat. QB PASSING YARDS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 496 68.54 34.27 32.3% 74.19 71.98 2019 500 67.31 33.66 32.0% 71.27 71.78 2020 498 65.40 32.70 30.7% 74.96 71.00 2021 552 65.16 32.58 34.8% 72.61 70.17 2022 529 61.30 30.65 35.7% 69.95 64.43 2023 549 66.52 33.26 33.2% 73.36 70.36 2024 548 62.87 31.44 35.4% 71.15 69.16 2025 551 62.33 31.17 35.0% 72.12 67.03 2026 185 59.80 29.90 34.1% 71.64 72.35 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 4408 64.66 32.33 33.7% 50.8% 72.39 69.56 QB PASSING TDs SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 496 0.97 0.49 29.2% 1.00 0.96 2019 500 0.96 0.48 30.6% 1.04 1.04 2020 498 0.95 0.48 28.9% 1.01 0.98 2021 552 0.87 0.43 31.5% 0.91 0.90 2022 529 0.84 0.42 34.6% 0.91 0.88 2023 549 0.82 0.41 35.0% 0.90 0.86 2024 548 0.91 0.46 30.8% 0.95 0.92 2025 551 0.90 0.45 32.1% 1.03 0.97 2026 185 0.88 0.44 43.2% 0.98 1.00 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 4408 0.90 0.45 32.1% 53.0% 0.97 0.94 QB INTERCEPTIONS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 496 0.73 0.36 26.6% 0.81 0.80 2019 500 0.75 0.37 27.2% 0.80 0.77 2020 498 0.68 0.34 22.3% 0.75 0.72 2021 552 0.70 0.35 25.0% 0.78 0.76 2022 529 0.69 0.35 30.6% 0.76 0.77 2023 549 0.69 0.35 27.5% 0.78 0.74 2024 548 0.68 0.34 28.8% 0.73 0.72 2025 551 0.62 0.31 37.2% 0.69 0.66 2026 185 0.63 0.31 33.5% 0.65 0.65 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 4408 0.69 0.34 28.5% 58.9% 0.76 0.74 QB PASS ATTEMPTS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 496 7.88 3.94 33.7% 8.62 8.39 2019 500 7.82 3.91 34.6% 8.31 8.47 2020 498 7.81 3.91 33.1% 8.64 8.16 2021 552 7.79 3.90 38.4% 8.78 8.49 2022 529 7.47 3.74 34.8% 8.28 7.86 2023 549 7.40 3.70 37.3% 8.65 8.15 2024 548 7.44 3.72 36.3% 8.61 8.50 2025 551 7.60 3.80 34.7% 8.49 8.12 2026 185 7.48 3.74 37.3% 8.74 8.68 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 4408 7.64 3.82 35.5% 53.5% 8.56 8.28 QB RUSHING YARDS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 394 13.14 6.57 36.0% 13.49 13.22 2019 358 13.06 6.53 29.9% 13.54 12.10 2020 390 12.50 6.25 34.6% 14.58 13.95 2021 445 13.10 6.55 32.1% 13.88 13.66 2022 412 14.63 7.31 31.6% 16.07 15.42 2023 438 12.88 6.44 31.5% 14.53 13.54 2024 452 15.39 7.70 29.0% 15.91 15.40 2025 429 13.61 6.80 38.2% 14.85 13.82 2026 152 12.18 6.09 42.1% 14.30 14.48 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 3470 13.51 6.75 33.3% 61.8% 14.63 13.96 QB RUSHING TDs SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 394 0.16 0.08 77.7% 0.24 0.25 2019 358 0.17 0.09 69.8% 0.28 0.27 2020 390 0.24 0.12 63.8% 0.35 0.33 2021 445 0.21 0.10 80.2% 0.31 0.31 2022 412 0.21 0.11 74.0% 0.31 0.33 2023 438 0.23 0.11 68.5% 0.27 0.29 2024 452 0.20 0.10 75.4% 0.29 0.29 2025 429 0.22 0.11 55.9% 0.32 0.32 2026 152 0.19 0.09 46.1% 0.32 0.32 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 3470 0.21 0.10 69.7% 67.8% 0.30 0.30 RB RUSHING YARDS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 964 25.91 12.96 32.4% 26.98 25.72 2019 962 24.15 12.08 39.5% 25.33 24.90 2020 1021 24.31 12.16 34.7% 25.76 24.86 2021 1031 23.59 11.80 40.3% 25.09 24.44 2022 1053 24.00 12.00 38.2% 25.52 25.00 2023 1053 21.93 10.97 43.0% 23.38 22.50 2024 1053 23.12 11.56 36.6% 24.42 24.08 2025 1020 23.85 11.93 42.0% 25.95 24.51 2026 364 22.48 11.24 42.9% 24.34 24.30 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 8521 23.77 11.89 38.6% 50.5% 25.24 24.47 RB RUSHING TDs SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 964 0.35 0.18 38.4% 0.43 0.42 2019 962 0.35 0.18 36.8% 0.42 0.42 2020 1021 0.34 0.17 34.1% 0.45 0.43 2021 1031 0.35 0.17 38.0% 0.44 0.42 2022 1053 0.32 0.16 40.6% 0.40 0.40 2023 1053 0.30 0.15 42.5% 0.37 0.37 2024 1053 0.34 0.17 38.9% 0.40 0.40 2025 1020 0.37 0.18 38.7% 0.47 0.45 2026 364 0.33 0.17 50.0% 0.43 0.44 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 8521 0.34 0.17 39.0% 69.5% 0.42 0.41 RB CARRIES SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 964 4.12 2.06 38.2% 4.32 4.20 2019 962 4.02 2.01 37.2% 3.99 3.96 2020 1021 4.11 2.05 36.8% 4.35 4.23 2021 1031 4.39 2.20 38.4% 4.42 4.51 2022 1053 4.00 2.00 39.7% 4.21 4.13 2023 1053 3.94 1.97 42.0% 4.19 4.13 2024 1053 3.96 1.98 38.5% 4.15 4.14 2025 1020 3.98 1.99 44.0% 4.10 4.02 2026 364 3.86 1.93 41.5% 4.07 4.05 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 8521 4.06 2.03 39.5% 52.5% 4.21 4.16 RB RECEPTIONS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 987 1.44 0.72 37.0% 1.61 1.55 2019 976 1.44 0.72 35.0% 1.52 1.49 2020 1030 1.34 0.67 36.3% 1.38 1.35 2021 1051 1.43 0.71 36.3% 1.55 1.52 2022 1057 1.31 0.66 37.3% 1.42 1.40 2023 1048 1.30 0.65 37.5% 1.38 1.36 2024 998 1.28 0.64 36.6% 1.34 1.29 2025 1030 1.21 0.61 40.5% 1.32 1.29 2026 339 1.30 0.65 41.6% 1.45 1.47 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 8516 1.34 0.67 37.3% 56.0% 1.44 1.41 RB RECEIVING YARDS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 987 14.14 7.07 33.1% 15.85 15.35 2019 976 13.43 6.71 34.1% 14.90 14.52 2020 1030 11.82 5.91 39.0% 12.99 12.68 2021 1051 13.30 6.65 31.3% 15.02 14.60 2022 1057 11.85 5.92 36.1% 13.27 12.79 2023 1048 11.91 5.95 38.4% 13.36 12.83 2024 998 11.91 5.96 37.3% 13.62 12.95 2025 1030 11.60 5.80 38.9% 12.99 12.64 2026 339 12.13 6.07 35.4% 13.56 13.73 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 8516 12.46 6.23 36.0% 49.9% 13.97 13.54 WR/TE RECEIVING YARDS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 2671 22.00 11.00 42.2% 23.79 23.37 2019 2658 22.27 11.13 39.8% 24.41 24.05 2020 2713 22.20 11.10 43.1% 24.38 23.69 2021 2894 21.38 10.69 42.6% 23.26 22.70 2022 2862 21.05 10.52 42.5% 23.18 22.60 2023 2933 20.91 10.46 42.3% 22.86 21.80 2024 2859 21.03 10.51 42.4% 22.69 21.73 2025 2886 20.11 10.06 43.2% 22.03 21.35 2026 1003 21.30 10.65 40.7% 23.60 24.39 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 23479 21.34 10.67 42.2% 48.0% 23.31 22.71 WR/TE RECEPTIONS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 2671 1.47 0.74 42.9% 1.60 1.57 2019 2658 1.48 0.74 44.2% 1.58 1.54 2020 2713 1.54 0.77 42.1% 1.63 1.60 2021 2894 1.47 0.74 41.9% 1.58 1.54 2022 2862 1.47 0.73 44.3% 1.61 1.54 2023 2933 1.44 0.72 45.6% 1.52 1.47 2024 2859 1.51 0.76 42.6% 1.58 1.54 2025 2886 1.40 0.70 44.9% 1.50 1.46 2026 1003 1.49 0.74 41.7% 1.59 1.64 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 23479 1.47 0.74 43.5% 47.3% 1.57 1.54 WR/TE RECEIVING TDs SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 2671 0.27 0.13 44.0% 0.36 0.36 2019 2658 0.25 0.13 45.7% 0.35 0.35 2020 2713 0.27 0.14 43.3% 0.37 0.37 2021 2894 0.25 0.12 44.7% 0.33 0.34 2022 2862 0.22 0.11 46.0% 0.33 0.33 2023 2933 0.22 0.11 47.3% 0.31 0.31 2024 2859 0.25 0.12 44.9% 0.33 0.32 2025 2886 0.24 0.12 44.6% 0.33 0.33 2026 1003 0.25 0.13 48.8% 0.35 0.35 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 23479 0.25 0.12 45.2% 70.8% 0.34 0.34 WR/TE TARGETS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 2671 1.93 0.97 41.0% 2.08 2.02 2019 2658 1.99 0.99 40.2% 2.09 2.02 2020 2713 1.96 0.98 40.6% 2.10 2.05 2021 2894 1.93 0.96 42.1% 2.05 2.00 2022 2862 1.87 0.94 41.3% 2.02 1.94 2023 2933 1.83 0.92 42.6% 1.93 1.88 2024 2859 1.95 0.97 40.3% 2.03 1.98 2025 2886 1.82 0.91 41.0% 1.94 1.91 2026 1003 1.95 0.98 40.7% 2.09 2.11 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 23479 1.91 0.96 41.1% 50.4% 2.03 1.98 K FIELD GOALS MADE SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 392 0.89 0.44 28.6% 0.98 0.92 2019 388 0.89 0.45 28.6% 1.01 0.96 2020 396 0.91 0.45 27.8% 1.00 0.99 2022 437 0.89 0.45 24.3% 1.03 0.98 2023 433 0.94 0.47 26.8% 1.02 0.97 2024 442 0.92 0.46 31.0% 1.07 1.02 2025 494 1.01 0.51 25.1% 1.12 1.07 2026 178 1.01 0.51 25.8% 1.13 1.11 ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 3160 0.93 0.46 27.3% 47.8% 1.04 1.00 DST SACKS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 465 1.36 0.68 33.5% — — 2019 465 1.47 0.74 31.4% — — 2020 480 1.29 0.64 33.1% — — 2021 512 1.26 0.63 34.8% — — 2022 510 1.38 0.69 35.3% — — 2023 512 1.48 0.74 30.1% — — 2024 512 1.42 0.71 35.2% — — 2025 512 1.42 0.71 36.1% — — 2026 184 1.33 0.66 34.2% — — ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 4152 1.38 0.69 33.7% 54.3% — — DST INTERCEPTIONS SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 465 0.77 0.38 27.1% — — 2019 465 0.76 0.38 27.7% — — 2020 480 0.72 0.36 32.9% — — 2021 512 0.76 0.38 29.1% — — 2022 510 0.75 0.37 25.1% — — 2023 512 0.74 0.37 31.4% — — 2024 512 0.70 0.35 32.0% — — 2025 512 0.68 0.34 36.7% — — 2026 184 0.68 0.34 34.8% — — ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 4152 0.73 0.37 30.5% 59.8% — — DST POINTS ALLOWED SEASON N MAE PIN50 RAW CAL last3 szn ---------------------------------------------------------------- 2018 480 7.62 3.81 39.8% — — 2019 480 7.44 3.72 43.1% — — 2020 480 7.54 3.77 37.3% — — 2021 512 7.74 3.87 36.3% — — 2022 510 7.21 3.60 42.9% — — 2023 512 7.52 3.76 37.1% — — 2024 512 7.19 3.59 41.4% — — 2025 512 7.26 3.63 40.2% — — 2026 184 6.97 3.49 42.4% — — ---------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 4182 7.42 3.71 39.9% 53.3% — — -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- back to projections · how it works · draft · light mode