NFL PLAYER PROJECTIONS
======================================================================================

Week 1  ·  NE @ SEA  ·  2026-09-09
  Lumen Field  ·  fieldturf  ·  SEA -3.5  ·  O/U 44.5

  TOP FANTASY POINTS  (PPR)
  Geno Smith           (QB SEA)  ██████████████████████████████   17.2
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba   (WR SEA)  ████████████████████████░░░░░░   13.6
  DK Metcalf           (WR SEA)  ████████████████████████░░░░░░   13.5
  Drake Maye           (QB NE)   █████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░    9.7
  Kenneth Walker       (RB SEA)  ██████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░    8.1
  Demario Douglas      (WR NE)   ██████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░    7.8
  Rhamondre Stevenson  (RB NE)   ██████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░    7.8
  Kendrick Bourne      (WR NE)   ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░    7.1

  PASSING                              L5   YDS  [p25–p75]    TD   INT     FP
  Geno Smith             (QB SEA)   ▅▁█▁▄   262  [206–279]   1.9   0.4   17.2
     + avg 34 pass att on the season
     + opp allowing 219 pass yds/g
     + avg 97% snap share on the season
  Drake Maye             (QB NE)    ▇▆█▄▁   202  [145–250]   0.6   0.5    9.7
     − avg 35 rush yds on the season
     − opp allowing 36 rec yds/g to TEs
     − opp allowing 130 rec yds/g to WRs

  RUSHING                              L5   YDS  [p25–p75]    TD           FP
  Kenneth Walker         (RB SEA)   █▄▂▃▁    64  [ 45–101]   0.3          8.1
     + avg 48 rush yds last 5
     + opp allowing 138 rush yds/g
     + avg 15 carries last 3
  Rhamondre Stevenson    (RB NE)    ▂██▇▁    61  [ 22–70 ]   0.3          7.8
     + avg 57 rush yds on the season
     + avg 14 carries last 3
     + avg 62% snap share last 3
  Antonio Gibson         (RB NE)    █▂▁█▄    44  [  5–74 ]   0.0          4.6
     + avg 10 carries last 3
     + avg 43 rush yds last 5
     + avg 48% snap share last 3
  Zach Charbonnet        (RB SEA)   █▄▁▄▄    43  [ 13–62 ]   0.1          4.7
     + opp allowing 138 rush yds/g
     + avg 54 rush yds last 5
     + avg 59% snap share last 3

  RECEIVING                            L5   YDS  [p25–p75]   REC    TD     FP
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba     (WR SEA)   ▇▇█▃▁    62  [ 22–89 ]   5.1   0.4   13.6
     + avg 8 targets on the season
     + avg 32% tgt share last 3
     + avg 93% snap share last 3
  DK Metcalf             (WR SEA)   ▆▁█▄▇    62  [ 38–88 ]   4.2   0.5   13.5
     + avg 7 targets on the season
     + avg 90% snap share last 3
     + avg 48 rec yds last 5
  Kendrick Bourne        (WR NE)    ▇█▂▃▁    39  [ 15–47 ]   3.2   0.0    7.1
     − avg 3 targets on the season
     + avg 27 rec yds on the season
     − avg 2 rec on the season
  Demario Douglas        (WR NE)    ▃▁▅█▆    37  [ 18–72 ]   4.1   0.0    7.8
     + avg 6 targets on the season
     + avg 4 rec on the season
     + avg 34 rec yds last 5
  Noah Fant              (TE SEA)   ▁▁▆▅█    35  [ 14–56 ]   2.6   0.0    6.1
     + avg 5 targets last 5
     + avg 20% tgt share last 3
     + opp allowing 67 rec yds/g to TEs
  Kayshon Boutte         (WR NE)    ▃▁▆▂█    33  [ 20–60 ]   3.0   0.0    6.4
     + avg 84% snap share last 3
     + avg 79% snap share on the season
     + avg 38 rec yds last 5
  Tyler Lockett          (WR SEA)   ▁▇▆▆█    29  [ 22–44 ]   2.3   0.2    6.5
     − avg 15 rec yds last 5
     − avg 9% tgt share last 3
     + avg 3 rec on the season
  Austin Hooper          (TE NE)    ▅▅█▁▃    27  [ 16–27 ]   3.1   0.1    6.3
     − avg 3 targets on the season
     + avg 43 rec yds last 5
     − avg 52% snap share last 5

  KICKING                              L5   FGM  [p25–p75]                 FP
  Jason Myers            (K SEA)    █▅▁▅▁   2.1  [1.2–3.0]                6.4
     + opp allowing 67 rec yds/g to TEs
     + team favored by 3.5
     − 16 games this season
  Joey Slye              (K NE)     █▃▁▁█   1.4  [1.1–2.7]                4.2
     − avg 75% FG% on the season
     + avg 1 FG made last 3
     − team scoring 16.8 pts/g last 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 1  ·  SF @ LA  ·  2026-09-10
  Melbourne Cricket Ground  ·  dome  ·  matrixturf  ·  LA -2.5  ·  O/U 48.5

  TOP FANTASY POINTS  (PPR)
  Puka Nacua           (WR LA)   ██████████████████████████████   17.1
  Kyren Williams       (RB LA)   ██████████████████████████░░░░   14.8
  Brock Purdy          (QB SF)   █████████████████████████░░░░░   14.2
  Matthew Stafford     (QB LA)   ███████████████████████░░░░░░░   12.9
  Deebo Samuel         (WR SF)   ████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░   11.2
  George Kittle        (TE SF)   ██████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░   10.6
  Jauan Jennings       (WR SF)   ███████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░    8.5
  Brett Maher          (K LA)    ████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░    7.0

  PASSING                              L5   YDS  [p25–p75]    TD   INT     FP
  Brock Purdy            (QB SF)    ▁▇▂▆█   259  [196–286]   1.3   0.6   14.2
     + avg 99% snap share on the season
     − team scoring 16.2 pts/g last 5
     + opp allowing 94 rec yds/g to TEs
  Matthew Stafford       (QB LA)    ▃▁▄▄█   237  [177–301]   1.1   0.6   12.9
     + avg 100% snap share on the season
     + avg 32 pass att on the season
     − opp allowing 194 pass yds/g

  RUSHING                              L5   YDS  [p25–p75]    TD           FP
  Kyren Williams         (RB LA)    ▇█▁▃▆    92  [ 66–106]   0.9         14.8
     + avg 90 rush yds last 5
     + avg 17 carries last 3
     + avg 86% snap share on the season
  Isaac Guerendo         (RB SF)    ▂█▆▄▁    32  [ 10–57 ]   0.0          3.2
     + avg 13 carries last 3
     + avg 64% snap share last 3
     − avg 35 rush yds on the season
  Ronnie Rivers          (RB LA)    ▁▂▅█▂    10  [  0–30 ]   0.0          1.0
     − avg 20 rush yds last 5
     − team pass rate 49%
     − avg 7 carries last 3

  RECEIVING                            L5   YDS  [p25–p75]   REC    TD     FP
  Puka Nacua             (WR LA)    ▅▂█▁▅    89  [ 40–173]   6.7   0.3   17.1
     + avg 10 targets on the season
     + avg 44% tgt share last 3
     + avg 7 rec on the season
  Deebo Samuel           (WR SF)    ▂▂▂█▁    63  [ 19–110]   4.9   0.0   11.2
     + avg 6 targets on the season
     + avg 4 rec on the season
     + opp allowing 94 rec yds/g to TEs
  George Kittle          (TE SF)    █▃▅▆▁    55  [ 23–104]   4.6   0.1   10.6
     + avg 6 targets on the season
     + avg 96% snap share last 3
     + avg 23% tgt share last 3
  Jauan Jennings         (WR SF)    █▁▃▅▃    50  [ 24–88 ]   3.5   0.0    8.5
     + avg 7 targets on the season
     + avg 94% snap share last 3
     + avg 5 rec on the season
  Tyler Higbee           (TE LA)    ▁▁▆█▇    27  [  9–47 ]   3.0   0.0    5.7
     + avg 16% tgt share last 3
     − avg 31% snap share last 3
     + avg 3 rec on the season
  Ricky Pearsall         (WR SF)    ▁▂▃█▄    25  [  5–57 ]   2.1   0.0    4.7
     + avg 17% tgt share last 3
     + avg 40 rec yds last 5
     + avg 4 targets on the season
  Tutu Atwell            (WR LA)    █▁▂▇▃    23  [  1–65 ]   1.9   0.0    4.2
     − avg 36% snap share last 3
     + opp allowing 150 rush yds/g
     − avg 3 targets last 5
  Demarcus Robinson      (WR LA)    ▁▁█▃█    21  [  2–53 ]   1.7   0.0    3.8
     + avg 82% snap share last 3
     + avg 81% snap share on the season
     − avg 10% tgt share last 3

  KICKING                              L5   FGM  [p25–p75]                 FP
  Brett Maher            (K LA)     ▁█▃▁▆   2.3  [1.1–3.0]                7.0
     − avg 76% FG% on the season
     − opp allowing 150 rush yds/g
     − avg 3 FG made on the season
  Jake Moody             (K SF)     ▅█▅▁▅   1.3  [1.0–2.0]                4.0
     − avg 76% FG% on the season
     − team implied for 23.0 pts
     − team pass rate 57%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Week 1  ·  ARI @ LAC  ·  2026-09-13
  SoFi Stadium  ·  dome  ·  matrixturf  ·  LAC -11.5  ·  O/U 45.5

  TOP FANTASY POINTS  (PPR)
  Justin Herbert       (QB LAC)  ██████████████████████████████   17.2
  Ladd McConkey        (WR LAC)  █████████████████████████░░░░░   14.5
  Kyler Murray         (QB ARI)  ████████████████████████░░░░░░   13.8
  James Conner         (RB ARI)  █████████████████████░░░░░░░░░   11.9
  Trey McBride         (TE ARI)  ████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░   11.7
  Marvin Harrison      (WR ARI)  █████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░    9.8
  J.K. Dobbins         (RB LAC)  █████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░    9.7
  Quentin Johnston     (WR LAC)  ███████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░    8.4

  PASSING                              L5   YDS  [p25–p75]    TD   INT     FP
  Justin Herbert         (QB LAC)   ▁▅▅█▃   264  [232–306]   1.8   0.3   17.2
     + team implied for 28.5 pts
     + avg 264 pass yds last 5
     + avg 2 pass TDs last 3
  Kyler Murray           (QB ARI)   ▄▂▁█▃   214  [214–240]   1.5   0.4   13.8
     − team implied for 17.0 pts
     + avg 32 pass att on the season
     − avg 34 rush yds on the season

  RUSHING                              L5   YDS  [p25–p75]    TD           FP
  James Conner           (RB ARI)   ▅▆██▁    76  [ 37–135]   0.7         11.9
     + avg 73 rush yds on the season
     + avg 16 carries last 3
     + avg 64% snap share last 3
  J.K. Dobbins           (RB LAC)   ▅▃█▆▁    53  [ 33–72 ]   0.7          9.7
     + avg 70 rush yds on the season
     + avg 14 carries last 3
     + team favored by 11.5
  Michael Carter         (RB ARI)   ▇▁▁█▄    34  [ 19–67 ]   0.0          3.6
     + avg 44 rush yds on the season
     − avg 28% snap share last 5
     − avg 7 carries last 3
  Hassan Haskins         (RB LAC)   ▁▁▇█▂     3  [  3–46 ]   0.0          0.3
     − avg 8 rush yds on the season
     − avg 30% snap share last 3
     − avg 7 carries last 3

  RECEIVING                            L5   YDS  [p25–p75]   REC    TD     FP
  Ladd McConkey          (WR LAC)   ▁▂▃▃█    66  [ 47–105]   5.7   0.4   14.5
     + avg 7 targets on the season
     + avg 5 rec on the season
     + avg 23% tgt share last 3
  Trey McBride           (TE ARI)   ▄▆▁█▄    55  [ 34–92 ]   5.7   0.1   11.7
     + avg 9 targets on the season
     + avg 92% snap share last 3
     + avg 79 rec yds last 5
  Marvin Harrison        (WR ARI)   ▃▁▂█▄    48  [ 31–50 ]   4.0   0.2    9.8
     + avg 7 targets on the season
     + avg 23% tgt share last 3
     + avg 4 rec on the season
  Quentin Johnston       (WR LAC)   ▃▂▃█▁    32  [ 16–60 ]   2.9   0.4    8.4
     + avg 9 targets last 5
     + avg 27% tgt share last 3
     + avg 4 rec on the season
  Will Dissly            (TE LAC)   ▁▄▅█▄    31  [ 14–57 ]   2.7   0.1    6.3
     − avg 11% tgt share last 3
     + avg 3 rec on the season
     − avg 47% snap share last 3
  Michael Wilson         (WR ARI)   ██▁▆▃    30  [ 17–51 ]   2.3   0.0    5.4
     + avg 44 rec yds last 5
     + avg 82% snap share last 3
     − avg 11% tgt share last 3
  D.J. Chark             (WR LAC)   ▅█▁▄▅    17  [  7–29 ]   1.9   0.0    3.6
     − avg 2 targets on the season
     − avg 34% snap share last 3
     − avg 8% tgt share last 3
  Zay Jones              (WR ARI)   ▁▃▁▄█    12  [  6–31 ]   1.2   0.0    2.4
     − avg 1 targets on the season
     − avg 34% snap share last 3
     − avg 4% tgt share last 3

  KICKING                              L5   FGM  [p25–p75]                 FP
  Taylor Bertolet        (K LAC)       █▁   1.9  [0.9–2.5]                5.6
     + avg 3 FG att last 5
     + team favored by 11.5
     + avg 100% FG% on the season
  Rodrigo Blankenship    (K ARI)    ▁█▁██   1.8  [1.0–2.6]                5.5
     − avg 67% FG% on the season
     − team underdog by 11.5
     + avg 3 FG att on the season

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
walk-forward:  pass MAE 65 (vs last-3 71, Δ+6) cov 33%  ·  rush MAE 24 (vs last-3 24, Δ+1) cov 32%  ·  rec MAE 22 (vs last-3 23, Δ+2) cov 37%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FP = fantasy points (PPR scoring).  params: ?games=N  ·  ?team=ABC  ·  ?scoring=ppr|half|std  ·  ?refresh=1   |   /accuracy